Scientists Predict Mass Extinctions of Mammal Species

A global group of conservationists warn that many of the world’s mammals face a "bleak" future, with as many as a third of all mammal species in danger of becoming extinct.

The grim forecast was given at the quadrennial congress in Barcelona of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), a group that includes more than 1,000 government agencies and nongovernmental conservation groups and 11,000 scientists in 160 countries.

At the conference, IUCN released a long-awaited Red List database of mammal species, compiled by more than 1,800 researchers in 130 countries, which details the status of all mammals known to humankind since A.D. 1500. The five-year effort includes scientists’ unpublished knowledge of ecology, taxonomy, distribution, population trends, threats and conservation efforts, and classified species according to their risk of extinction.

The study shows that at least 76 mammal species have become extinct since 1500, and at least 1,141 of the 5,487 mammals still in existence are threatened with extinction.

However, since scientists were not able to gather sufficient data on 836 mammal species to evaluate their chances of survival, the potential wave of extinction could be even higher.

"The reality is that the number of threatened mammals could be as high as 36 percent," says Jan Schipper, a mammalogist for Conservation International and lead author in a forthcoming article in Science. "This indicates that conservation action backed by research is a clear priority for the future, not only to improve the data so that we can evaluate threats to these poorly known species, but to investigate means to recover threatened species and populations."

The results show 188 mammals are in the highest threat category of Critically Endangered, including the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), which has a population of just 84-143 adults and has continued to decline due to a shortage of its primary prey, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). China’s Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus) is listed as Extinct in the Wild. However, the captive and semi-captive populations have increased in recent years and it is possible that truly wild populations could be re-established soon. It may be too late, however, to save the additional 29 species that have been flagged as Critically Endangered Possibly Extinct, including Cuba’s little earth hutia (Mesocapromys sanfelipensis), which has not been seen in nearly 40 years.

Nearly 450 mammals have been listed as Endangered, including the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), which moved from Least Concern to Endangered after the global population declined by more than 60 percent in the last 10 years due to a fatal infectious facial cancer.

IUCN reports that habitat loss and degradation affect 40 percent of the world’s mammals. It is most extreme in Central and South America, West, East and Central Africa, Madagascar, and in South and Southeast Asia. Over-harvesting is wiping out larger mammals, especially in Southeast Asia, but also in parts of Africa and South America.